The result may not have gone the way I voted, and there are reasons the government could justify overturning the result, but I’m no Europhile. If Brexit is what we’ve decided to do, so be it. There were many strong arguments to leave the EU that had nothing to do with xenophobia and I prefer to pretend that they won the day for Leave rather than the votes of the racist and the easily manipulated. So what now?
Our government has the mandate, but no need to hurry
The Eurocrats are furious with Britain. We have been a difficult partner for 40 years and have now given the European project a severe kicking and caused chaos in the process. They want us out quickly, they want to punish us, make an example of us so that no other “independent” state will ever dare contemplate what Britain has done. For once though, they are utterly powerless to act on their urges because Article 50 rules, intentionally or otherwise, give us the upper hand here – we decide when the process of Brexit begins.
Once Article 50 is invoked, all the power shifts to the EU who then control negotiations and the timing of our departure – but until it is invoked, we control everything and crucially, we cannot be forced to invoke Article 50 and cannot be forced out of the EU. So let us not be hasty.
Why not take our time here and make all our post-EU arrangements in advance so that when we do invoke Article 50, there will be much less uncertainty about what our position will be two years later. Remainers complained that it would take years to negotiate new trade deals with other countries around the world. Well then, let’s take as many years as we need to secure those agreements – until Article 50 is invoked, there is no rush. We can take our time and plan this properly.
The EU are playing hardball at the moment and comments along the lines of “No negotiations before Article 50” have been flung around carelessly by leading figures across the channel. I think that this comes from post-Brexit anger and not from level-headed thinking. I’m sure when it becomes clear that the UK is going to take its time, plan properly, get systems in place ready for Brexit, the other leaders across the EU will come around and realise that the best thing for all sides is to negotiate as amicable and least disruptive an exit as is possible.
Let’s not forget that an opportunity exists here for the EU also because such an approach would allow the EU to demonstrate, after decades of evidence to the contrary, that it does respect the will of the people, that it does respect the sovereignty of its members and that it can and will adapt to changing times & changing circumstances in sensible ways and, crucially, that it does not hold onto its members through negative means like fear, threats & blackmail.
If the EU successfully punishes Britain and drives our economy into the ground by focusing its power & influence on our demise, what message will it be sending to current and future EU members? The EU would look far less like a progressive, democratic force for good in the world and far more like the USSR. The Soviet Union relied on fear and intimidation to keep its members in line and we all know how that ended up.
Countries should be in the EU because they believe in it, because it works for them and because they wish to move in the same direction as the rest of the EU. Countries who feel that the EU is increasingly moving in a direction they don’t wish to follow should be free to leave and find their own path without being punished because that is not in the long term interests of anyone.
Theresa May became our Prime Minister today and promised a better Britain and to implement Brexit and make a success of it. I’m sure these things are possible but they will be very difficult to achieve. I hope she is successful.
Post Brexit Britain
Our politicians refuse to say so, because it would be political suicide, but this country needs immigrants and lots of them. Also, business likes to be able to move its employees around effortlessly too and putting barriers in the way is bad for them and likely bad for us too. For these reasons, I think we should probably retain some sort of free-movement. I think the complex points based system advocated by the Leave campaigners (all of whom appear to have run away) would be a bureaucratic nightmare, expensive to operate, fraught with frustrating delays as visa applications fluctuate and probably unnecessary to apply to every EU worker anyway.
Perhaps instead we can look at other ways of managing numbers that only kick in after certain thresholds, defined by the government of the day, are reached – free movement but with emergency brakes, perhaps based in part on migration numbers in the other direction – I believe Switzerland has already negotiated something along these lines with the EU and has applied its emergency brake recently.
If we are successful in negotiating managed free-movement with the EU, perhaps we could negotiate similar preferential free-movement arrangements, as part of wider trade deals, with other nations too. Why not Australia, New Zealand & Canada? Perhaps our youth, who have seen their options for living and working in other EU countries threatened, could have the EU plus several additional countries available as options.
And why not? Outside the EU, we will have no restrictions on what we can attempt to negotiate with other countries – surely the main benefit of leaving. Brexit brings danger and opportunity – the fact that we decide when to invoke Article 50 grants us as much time as we need to formulate a plan for what we want Britain to be and begin negotiations with nations inside and outside the EU to prepare for our future.
Best of luck Theresa – the Labour party appear willing to give you at least another decade to see this through. So go for it!
